Almost eight out of 10 Canadians believe the earth’s climate is changing, but that belief has softened in recent months, according to a new poll from Forum Research.
Conservative voters, the least wealthy and those who live in Ontario or the prairies are the most likely to deny climate change, the poll reveals. While a majority of Canadians still believe climate change is real, is man-made and that the federal government is failing to address the growing problem, the survey of 1,286 adults contacted May 12 and 13 reveals.
But that belief has softened slightly to 78 per cent of respondents who said the climate is changing, down from 84 per cent the last time Forum polled the issue in July 2013. About 15 per cent of respondents — or one in six — said they don’t believe in climate change and seven per cent had no opinion.
There are two possible reasons for the slight decline in support: extreme weather hasn’t been in the news of late, and the current discussion of carbon pricing could spur more people to disbelieve the earth is warming, Forum President Lorne Bozinoff said.
“This is something that fluctuates a little bit. It’s like a tide that comes in and out,” he said in an interview about the poll. He also said it’s “probably because it’s not been quite on top of mind as it has been in the past.”
One severe summer storm and that could change.
Overall, however, he said the strong belief that climate change is real and man made is a good sign for Quebec and Ontario premiers Philippe Couillard and Kathleen Wynne, as the latter has signed onto the former’s cap-and-trade scheme with California to put a price on carbon emissions.
Almost three quarters, or 72 per cent, of those who believe climate change is real also say it is a result of human activities, which Forum says is equal to 56 per cent of the population.
Just one sixth of Canadians, or 15 per cent, believe climate change is happening, but is a “natural phenomenon,” the poll finds — a belief held by just a fifth of respondents who said climate change is real.
Over two thirds, or 68 per cent, of Canadians believe the federal government is doing a poor job of combatting climate change, the poll finds. Just 22 per cent think enough is being done, but 55 per cent of Conservative voters are happy with progress made.
Only nine per cent of Liberals and New Democrats believe the government is doing enough.
On the surface that may sound like bad news for the Conservatives and Prime Minister Stephen Harper as they seek another majority mandate in an election set for October of this year. But Bozinoff said the opposite could be true because the environment offers Conservatives a “wedge” issue that differentiates them from those two parties as well as the Green Party and the remaining elements of the Bloq Québéçois.
“There’s many issues where the Conservatives are in a minority but they own that minority position,” Bozinoff said. “It looks like it would work against the Conservatives, but not necessarily” because they then own that minority view.
The poll is considered accurate +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Check out the full press release and methodology here.